Tuesday, October 15, 2013

What if (when) America gets nuked!

At some point in time, America will eventually get nuked. Disregarding, for the moment, the specific type of nuclear device that a terrorist might use, I'd like to focus on just where such a device might ignited...
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that at some point some terrorist organization will effectively detonate an existing (i.e. stolen)1 nuclear device with a nominal yield of 475 kilotons2. The relevant questions would then center around the devices geographic location and the elevation above ground level. Let's look at each...

Geographic location

When ever a nuclear device is detonated, large amount of radioactive nucleotides are generated, primarily from the debris that are sucked up into the expanding ball of fire. The breakdown or half life of these particles can be anywhere from seconds to thousands of years and they can be scattered far down wind of wherever they are generated. This debris field can stretch for hundreds of miles, sickening or killing all who come in contact wit it. So, the 'fallout field' can be of importance to the terrorists as to where they place the bomb. Some likely locations might be Kansas City, Chicago or points east as the prevailing wind currents would then affect other population centers.

Elevation

Critical to the type of damage a device would do concerns how high up it is. A low ground burst would max out the damage radius while at the same time would generate a lot of fallout, while a high latitude burst would max the EMP effect which could effectively render many electronic devices inoperative. In either case, many millions of people would be effectively terrorized and that, after all is the real intent in the first place!

The bottom line is that any device, be it crude or sophisticated, would effectively place a high degree of stress on the psychological profile and resilience of our nation. Markets would likely crash, transportation would be disrupted, food networks hurt and it would take a long long time for things to get back to 'normal. Just look at what three planes did to America in 2001! They ended up costing the country close to a trillion dollars and changed the way we do business and live our lives to this day!

1 – Most of the literature I've been able to read indicates that a 'home built' crude nuclear device would be very problematic to construct.

2 – The average yield of a single W88 thermonuclear warhead.

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